As folks in the United States head to the polls in November, political analysts are busy. They try to predict electoral votes. But in some states, results are far from certain. Votes from seven swing states could provide the push that propels a candidate into the White House—or sends him packing.
Americans elect a president using the Electoral College. Under this system, Congress awards states electoral votes based on population: States with many residents get more electoral votes than states with few.
The Electoral College allows a state to cast all of its votes for one candidate or the other. Only Maine and Nebraska allow for splitting the state’s electoral votes.
Factors like voter turnout, numbers of independent voters, or changes in population can influence how a state votes—and which candidate gets its votes.
For example, if people move from traditionally Democratic states like New York or California and settle in traditionally Republican states like South Carolina or Mississippi, the new state’s voting habits may change.
Often, analysts can predict who will get a state’s electoral votes. In 2024, Democrats will almost surely win California, Illinois, and New York. Republicans are likely to grab Tennessee, Kansas, and Alabama.
Some states are harder to predict. These are the swing states. Swing states tend to change from supporting one political party to supporting the other—from Democrat to Republican and back again. They are the nail-biters on election night as folks watch the votes roll in and wonder how a swing state will vote this time.
Swing states are also called battleground states. Politicians know that votes in those states could easily tip either way, so they battle hardest there.
Pundits have identified seven swing states in the 2024 election. Those states represent 93 electoral college votes. That’s a whopping number given that a candidate must get to 270 in order to win the presidency!
Here are 2024’s swing states with their vote counts: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10).
How those seven will vote is unknown. But both candidates are busy making visits, holding rallies, running campaign ads, and robo-calling in those battleground locales.
As voters barrel toward November 5, many already seem tired or discouraged. It’s helpful to remember that God is in control of the whole Earth—even candidates and swing states. By voting, good citizens have the prospect of influencing local and national policy, fostering accountable leaders—and better reflecting the will of We, the People.
Why? The electoral vote system helps states with few residents stand on a more even footing with more populated states. Every vote counts—especially in swing states.
