For many people, food security is under threat. Russia halted an agreement allowing Ukraine to export wheat. El Niño weather patterns threaten crops. Now soaring rice prices have people and governments around the globe scrambling.
India is the world’s largest exporter of rice. To control prices ahead of an election year, the government banned some rice shipments. The limits will take nearly half the country’s usual rice exports off the market this year.
India’s rice restrictions were at least partly motivated by weather. An Indian food policy expert says an uneven monsoon season and a looming El Niño meant India needed the partial ban to stop food prices from rising.
Even before India’s limits, countries frantically bought and stored rice. They were anticipating shortages due to extreme weather caused by El Niño.
An El Niño is a natural, temporary, and occasional warming of part of the Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can shift global weather patterns. Scientists say past El Niño events have resulted in extreme weather ranging from drought to flooding—both of which can affect rice crops.
Nations with growing populations like Senegal have been trying to grow more of their own rice. But many are struggling. Imported rice—70% of which comes from India—has become overly expensive.
Amadou Khan, an unemployed father of five in Dakar, Senegal, says his children eat rice with every meal except breakfast. They often have to skip meals when he’s out of work.
“I am just getting by,” Khan says.
Senegal must now turn to other trading partners like Thailand or Cambodia for rice.
In Kenya, high fertilizer prices and a yearslong drought reduced rice production. So prices for homegrown rice have soared. Until recently, cheap rice from India filled the gap.
But Kenyan wholesalers haven’t received new stocks from India. And they may not receive any for a while.
Francis Ndege worries that his customers in a Nairobi slum may not be able to afford his rice. The price of a 55-pound bag of the staple food has risen from about $14 to $18 since June.
Ndege has sold rice for 30 years. “I’m really hoping the imports keep coming,” he says.
Vietnam, another major exporter of the grain, hopes to capitalize on rice shortfalls. The Southeast Asian nation seeks to keep home prices stable while boosting exports. One strategy is increasing how much land in the fertile Mekong Delta grows rice.
The Philippines, which lost much of its crop in a typhoon this summer, is already in talks with Vietnam to buy rice. And Vietnam may target the United Kingdom, which receives much of its rice from India.
Neighboring Thailand’s government expects to ship more rice than it did last year. But uncertainty about what India will do next and concerns about El Niño make Thai farmers, exporters, and mill operators wary of committing to plant, buy, or sell.
The bottom line, says Thai exporter Charoen Laothamatas, is that “no one wants to take the risk.”
God controls weather and crops and countries. He allows events and circumstances humans can neither control nor understand. But we can rest assured that He knows our needs and remembers that we are wholly dependent on Him (Psalm 103:14) for our daily bread—or rice.
